So when, exactly, will we know who the next president will be?
Will we know late tonight? Early tomorrow morning? Later in the week?
In 2020, although Joe Biden seemed well on his way to victory, it wasn’t until Saturday — four days after Election Day — that The Associated Press and other news organizations declared him the winner.
And not knowing for a few days might be stressful, but it doesn’t mean anything is wrong.
PolitiFact’s Amy Sherman writes, “Not knowing all the results on election night is normal. Here’s why.”
The Washington Post’s Patrick Marley and Amy Gardner have a good roundup of what the timeline could look like this week.
It’s all likely going to come down to the swing states. Every state is different in how they count the various ways to vote, including same-day, mail-in, early and absentee votes. Let’s go through them.
- Pennsylvania: Just like 2020, because of when mail-in and absentee ballots are counted, it could be several days before we know if Harris or Trump won the Keystone State.
- Arizona: Again, it could take days before all the votes are tabulated in Arizona.
- Nevada: A state where mail-in ballots are high could take days. The Post writes, “Most states require ballots to be returned by Election Day, but Nevada counts mail ballots without a postmark that arrive up to three days after Election Day and those with a postmark up to four days after Election Day. That creates uncertainty on when the results will be known, especially in a close election. The second biggest day for receiving mail ballots in Nevada is typically the day after the election.”
- In 2020, Georgia was called for Biden on Friday. The Post reports that election officials are expecting a quicker count this time. How much quicker? We don’t know.
- Michigan: Most reports say Michigan will be able to declare a winner by Wednesday.
- Wisconsin: In 2020, Wisconsin was called for Biden on Wednesday afternoon. So the expectation is the same timeline this time around.
- North Carolina: This state generally counts votes quickly. The Post writes, “Because of damage from Hurricane Helene, some precincts will have to call their results into election offices instead of delivering computer memory sticks to them. This could slow the reporting of results in some counties.”
All of this is, of course, subject to change.
The bottom line is that, just like 2020, it could take several days before we know who won. And that doesn’t take into account recounts or legal challenges.
As FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich and Amina Brown wrote, “Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 5 — but that doesn’t mean we’ll know who won the election on that date. With each passing election, more and more Americans are casting mail-in ballots, which take longer to count than in-person votes because they need to be opened and verified. That means that finding out the winner on election night may be a thing of the past.”
The 538 story looks at every state — when the polls close and the timing of the results.
This piece originally appeared in The Poynter Report, our daily newsletter for everyone who cares about the media. Subscribe to The Poynter Report here.
