Two big trends seem to be heading down the track when it comes to jobs and income. By the end of July, more than three million Americans may lose unemployment benefits.
This is an interesting issue to quiz candidates about. Many are caught between wanting to stop so much federal spending and not wanting to appear as though they’re being insensitive to the unemployed.
In June, the government cut 225,000 temporary Census jobs. These job losses have already affected states nationwide, including Massachusetts, Oregon and New Jersey. The majority of the remaining 475,000 Census jobs are expected to end in July and August.
The Atlantic put the issue in perspective, pointing out that it could take until winter before the labor market turns around:
“According to these projections and the actual results in June, it would mean a summer of 329,000 net job losses. It could take until winter before the labor market gets those back through three months of net positive gains, unless jobs grow at a rate of more than 110,000 per month starting in September. That might not sound like much, but so far this year, only two months — March and April — have seen non-Census job growth exceed 100,000.
“The superficial labor market results will almost certainly look bad over the next few months, given the layoffs of Census workers. Even though the loss of these jobs doesn’t really reflect economic deterioration, Americans who simply note the aggregate change throughout the summer might lose confidence in the recovery. If that happens, and spending pulls back, then that will make matters even worse for employment.”
